The European Commission has analyzed the global impact of the major tariff increases implemented during the second Trump administration, the largest such rise in the US since the 1930s.

The study concludes that the tariffs harm the US economy, reducing GDP and increasing inflation by raising costs for industries reliant on imported goods and lowering household purchasing power. Only about a quarter of the tariff cost falls on foreign entities; the rest burdens American firms and consumers. 

While intended to boost domestic production, the tariffs instead strengthen the US terms of trade, making exports less competitive.

For the EU, the overall effect is moderately negative due to lower exports to the US, despite some gains in third markets. Retaliatory measures would worsen losses for all sides.

The findings show how such tariffs disrupt global value chains and undermine the stable, rules-based trade that sectors like steel depend on.