The global nickel market is locked in range-bound trading as participants await Indonesia's final decisions on RKAB mining quotas.

Indonesia's Minerals and Coal Director General Tri Winarno said that 2026 production will remain fixed at 260 million to 270 million tons. Although miners can apply for target adjustments until July 31, the state plans to supply only domestic smelters facing shortages rather than approving broad increases.

Simultaneously, high LME inventories and weak seasonal demand drag down the market. Stainless steel factories are lowering output, and battery makers limit buying to immediate needs.

Hawkish Federal Reserve commentary dampens risk assets, but rising sulfur costs linked to Middle East tensions support prices. The final market direction hinges on the approved quota volumes and demand recovery.