According to Reuters, Citi increased its 0-3 month aluminum price target to US$3,600 per metric ton, with a potential peak of US$4,000 in a bull-case scenario. This adjustment follows the regional conflict that triggered force majeure declarations from two Gulf producers. Trading on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached a four-year high last Wednesday due to growing supply anxieties.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped after retaliatory strikes, impacting a vital global trade route. Citi warns that recovery for container-shipped metals may lag behind tanker flows due to insurance and logistical hurdles.

Besides, Goldman Sachs estimates prices could reach US$3,600 if regional production stops for one month. Possible facility instability also threatens to delay output restarts for several months.