China's steel exports are surging, expected to hit 120 million tons this year and potentially 150 million tons by 2026. The key driver is not foreign competition but a fierce domestic price war among Chinese steelmakers.

With weak construction demand and local governments burdened by debt, infrastructure-driven steel consumption has slowed. Mills are turning to exports to survive. Some local governments even encourage price cuts to boost regional economic performance, worsening the internal rivalry.

Meanwhile, China’s policy shift toward advanced manufacturing, rather than traditional infrastructure, further dampens domestic steel demand growth.